Hi there.
I am currently writing my dissertation on the effect of Populist Radical Right Parties on economic growth in the EU, from 1990-2022. As part of my analysis, I have performed the SCM on the Fidesz party in Hungary from 2010 as the treatment. My RMSE is low (0.024), but my fit could be improved. Here is my current graph (economic growth is measured by GDP/cap growth).
First of all, I would like to know how bad of a fit this is. It is for an undergraduate dissertation, so I'm not sure on the bar here.
Secondly, I wonder if the poorer fit is due to my relatively small donor pool: I restrict it to EU countries (N=23 once Italy and Poland are excluded) because I wanted to ensure counterfactuals were meaningful, and then included 6 predictors for macroeconomic, structural, and cultural matching.
Thirdly, I appreciate that yearly variations in GDP/cap growth could be difficult to match on. Could I use GDP/cap instead?
Thanks so much in advance.
I am currently writing my dissertation on the effect of Populist Radical Right Parties on economic growth in the EU, from 1990-2022. As part of my analysis, I have performed the SCM on the Fidesz party in Hungary from 2010 as the treatment. My RMSE is low (0.024), but my fit could be improved. Here is my current graph (economic growth is measured by GDP/cap growth).
First of all, I would like to know how bad of a fit this is. It is for an undergraduate dissertation, so I'm not sure on the bar here.
Secondly, I wonder if the poorer fit is due to my relatively small donor pool: I restrict it to EU countries (N=23 once Italy and Poland are excluded) because I wanted to ensure counterfactuals were meaningful, and then included 6 predictors for macroeconomic, structural, and cultural matching.
Thirdly, I appreciate that yearly variations in GDP/cap growth could be difficult to match on. Could I use GDP/cap instead?
Thanks so much in advance.
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