Hello everyone!
I am trying to forecast an ARDL model but I am getting the following message, although there are no missing values for the exogenous variable.
I am not sure what I am doing wrong.
Stata v. 17
I am trying to forecast an ARDL model but I am getting the following message, although there are no missing values for the exogenous variable.
Code:
. ardl lnLifeExpec lnGDPpercap_0_5, aic dots maxlags(2) ec
Optimal lag selection, % complete:
-20%---+---40%---+---60%---+---80%---+-100%
..................................................
AIC optimized over 6 lag combinations
ARDL(1,0) regression
Sample: 1962 thru 2023 Number of obs = 62
R-squared = 0.0909
Adj R-squared = 0.0601
Log likelihood = 249.61942 Root MSE = 0.0044
D.lnLifeExpec Coefficient Std. err. t P>t [95% conf. interval]
ADJ
lnLifeExpec
L1. -.0611332 .0256251 -2.39 0.020 -.1124089 -.0098575
LR
lnGDPpercap_0_5 .107768 .0287109 3.75 0.000 .0503176 .1652184
SR
_cons .2041732 .0830615 2.46 0.017 .0379675 .370379
. estimates store ardl
. forecast create ardl
Forecast model ardl started.
. forecast estimates ardl, names(lnLifeExpec_f) predict(xb)
Added estimation results from ardl.
Forecast model ardl now contains 1 endogenous variable.
. forecast exogenous lnGDPpercap_0_5
Forecast model ardl now contains 1 declared exogenous variable.
. forecast solve, begin (2024) end(2030)
Computing dynamic forecasts for model ardl.
Starting period: 2024
Ending period: 2030
Forecast prefix: f_
2024: ............
2025:
missing values encountered
Missing values were encountered while attempting to solve the model at time 2025.
Forecast for variable lnLifeExpec_f evaluates to missing.
r(416);
. list Year lnLifeExpec lnGDPpercap_0_5 if Year>=2022 & Year<=2030
Year lnLife~c lnGD~0_5
-
63. 2022 4.389953 9.917771
64. 2023 4.401829 9.944
65. 2024 . 9.948988
66. 2025 . 9.953976
67. 2026 . 9.958963
-
68. 2027 . 9.963951
69. 2028 . 9.968938
70. 2029 . 9.973926
71. 2030 . 9.978913
.
Stata v. 17
