Good Day Statalist,
I'm trying to make a forecast. I have gathered the top tax rate for several countries and created an average variable (AVG_PIT) from this. Unfortunately, I am currently unable to produce a meaningful prediction X_extante, dynamic(). Stata consistently gives me the same value for each year. There are therefore no volatility in future values which makes a forecast impossible.
I would be interested in making a forecast based on all my data, as well as a forecast that only includes the last 30 years.
I'm trying to make a forecast. I have gathered the top tax rate for several countries and created an average variable (AVG_PIT) from this. Unfortunately, I am currently unable to produce a meaningful prediction X_extante, dynamic(). Stata consistently gives me the same value for each year. There are therefore no volatility in future values which makes a forecast impossible.
Code:
tsset year *Forecast AVG PIT for 2024-2034 set obs `=_N+11' replace year = 2024 in 226 replace year = 2025 in 227 replace year = 2026 in 228 replace year = 2027 in 229 replace year = 2028 in 230 replace year = 2029 in 231 replace year = 2030 in 232 replace year = 2031 in 233 replace year = 2032 in 234 replace year = 2033 in 235 replace year = 2034 in 236 gen diff_AVG_PIT=d.AVG_PIT arima diff_AVG_PIT, arima(2,0,2) predict diff_AVG_PIT_ext, dynamic(226)
