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  • discrepancy between LMM parameters and margins follow-up analyses

    hi
    I have a repeated design (experimental) with four measurement period (corresponding to baseline anticipation task and recovery) and two between-subject variables (gender as categorical and tas as continuous) and two covariates (age and imc both mean centered)
    I ran a mixed model with a quadratic time variable with df method satterwait
    Code:
     mixed RMSSD c.Time##c.Time##sex##c.tasc c.agec c.imcc||id:,dfmethod(sat) reml
    I obtain the following result :
    Code:
    Computing degrees of freedom ...
    
    Mixed-effects REML regression                   Number of obs     =        638
    Group variable: id                              Number of groups  =        176
                                                    Obs per group:
                                                                  min =          1
                                                                  avg =        3.6
                                                                  max =          4
    DF method: Satterthwaite                        DF:           min =     171.12
                                                                  avg =     450.91
                                                                  max =     535.78
                                                    F(13,   392.89)   =       8.01
    Log restricted-likelihood = -2839.7673          Prob > F          =     0.0000
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       RMSSD | Coefficient  Std. err.      t    P>|t|     [95% conf. interval]
    -------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                        Time |  -28.45381   5.029226    -5.66   0.000    -38.33579   -18.57182
                             |
               c.Time#c.Time |   6.248558   .9884281     6.32   0.000     4.306395    8.190721
                             |
                       1.sex |  -4.594753    8.53208    -0.54   0.590    -21.35534    12.16583
                             |
                  sex#c.Time |
                          1  |    5.76347   7.716512     0.75   0.455    -9.399027    20.92597
                             |
           sex#c.Time#c.Time |
                          1  |  -1.138249   1.516564    -0.75   0.453    -4.118192    1.841694
                             |
                        tasc |  -.0201683   .5492762    -0.04   0.971    -1.099175    1.058838
                             |
               c.Time#c.tasc |   .0004071   .5014809     0.00   0.999    -.9849501    .9857643
                             |
        c.Time#c.Time#c.tasc |   .0109818   .0986847     0.11   0.911    -.1829218    .2048855
                             |
                  sex#c.tasc |
                          1  |   2.248075   .8283858     2.71   0.007     .6207613    3.875389
                             |
           sex#c.Time#c.tasc |
                          1  |  -1.909282   .7528462    -2.54   0.012    -3.388609   -.4299562
                             |
    sex#c.Time#c.Time#c.tasc |
                          1  |   .3632271   .1479285     2.46   0.014     .0725516    .6539026
                             |
                        agec |  -.2516221   .1102221    -2.28   0.024    -.4691768   -.0340673
                        imcc |  -.2688028   .1942857    -1.38   0.168    -.6523081    .1147024
                       _cons |   79.28437   5.594944    14.17   0.000     68.29365    90.27508
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Random-effects parameters  |   Estimate   Std. err.     [95% conf. interval]
    -----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
    id: Identity                 |
                      var(_cons) |   121.1566   24.23607      81.86031    179.3167
    -----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                   var(Residual) |   348.4228   22.96264      306.2024    396.4648
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    LR test vs. linear model: chibar2(01) = 48.51         Prob >= chibar2 = 0.0000
    But when I try to interpret the quadratic interaction (the last interaction in the table), nothing appears to be significant.

    Code:
     margins r.sex, at(Time=(1(1)4) tasc=(-10.17 0 10.17))
    --------------------------------------------------------------
                 |            Delta-method
                 |   Contrast   std. err.     [95% conf. interval]
    -------------+------------------------------------------------
         sex@_at |
    (1 vs 0)  1  |  -7.109073   4.697893     -16.31677    2.098628
    (1 vs 0)  2  |   .0304682   3.349512     -6.534454    6.595391
    (1 vs 0)  3  |   7.170009   4.674645     -1.992126    16.33214
    (1 vs 0)  4  |   3.574994    4.02174      -4.30747    11.45746
    (1 vs 0)  5  |   2.379192   2.873082     -3.251946    8.010329
    (1 vs 0)  6  |   1.183389   4.061165     -6.776349    9.143126
    (1 vs 0)  7  |   4.594524    4.03969     -3.323122    12.51217
    (1 vs 0)  8  |   2.451417   2.887051     -3.207099    8.109932
    (1 vs 0)  9  |   .3083093   4.102824     -7.733077    8.349696
    (1 vs 0) 10  |  -4.050483   4.680018     -13.22315    5.122184
    (1 vs 0) 11  |   .2471437   3.330524     -6.280564    6.774851
    (1 vs 0) 12  |   4.544771    4.67825     -4.624431    13.71397
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    the marginsplot evidenced the last interaction clearly on women but not on male but statistically I can't show this despite the significant interaction.
    Code:
    * Example generated by -dataex-. For more info, type help dataex
    clear
    sex RMSSD IMC age tas id Time
    0                  .  26.38111803067427 47 42 301002 1
    0   43.5690455299983  26.38111803067427 47 42 301002 2
    0 40.131282806396484  26.38111803067427 47 42 301002 3
    0 55.863792419433594  26.38111803067427 47 42 301002 4
    1                  . 30.399537242090112 32 41 301041 1
    1                  . 30.399537242090112 32 41 301041 2
    1                  . 30.399537242090112 32 41 301041 3
    1  50.82164001464844 30.399537242090112 32 41 301041 4
    0                  .  21.95849147488975 41 52 301044 1
    0                  .  21.95849147488975 41 52 301044 2
    0                  .  21.95849147488975 41 52 301044 3
    0                  .  21.95849147488975 41 52 301044 4
    0                  . 22.747916891699425 21 32 301059 1
    0                  . 22.747916891699425 21 32 301059 2
    0                  . 22.747916891699425 21 32 301059 3
    0     65.46923828125 22.747916891699425 21 32 301059 4
    1                  .  46.46006550768456 19 48 301061 1
    1                  .  46.46006550768456 19 48 301061 2
    1                  .  46.46006550768456 19 48 301061 3
    1  48.13388442993164  46.46006550768456 19 48 301061 4
    0                  . 20.400316989540915 52 41 301062 1
    0                  . 20.400316989540915 52 41 301062 2
    0                  . 20.400316989540915 52 41 301062 3
    0  66.44867706298828 20.400316989540915 52 41 301062 4
    1  77.54911945186048 23.735447158870578 22 49 301063 1
    1                  . 23.735447158870578 22 49 301063 2
    1                  . 23.735447158870578 22 49 301063 3
    1  84.45220947265625 23.735447158870578 22 49 301063 4
    1  72.18422692921973  39.79048797855337 31 37 302004 1
    1                  .  39.79048797855337 31 37 302004 2
    1                  .  39.79048797855337 31 37 302004 3
    1   66.5587387084961  39.79048797855337 31 37 302004 4
    0 49.842341247133774   32.6294267034245 29 64 302009 1
    0                  .   32.6294267034245 29 64 302009 2
    0                  .   32.6294267034245 29 64 302009 3
    0 54.345741271972656   32.6294267034245 29 64 302009 4
    1  91.86158985474708 30.561683908094352 26 44 302011 1
    1                  . 30.561683908094352 26 44 302011 2
    1                  . 30.561683908094352 26 44 302011 3
    1  73.03433227539063 30.561683908094352 26 44 302011 4
    1 25.646122754270216  46.13384559828077 40 57 302015 1
    1   34.4880398501258  46.13384559828077 40 57 302015 2
    1   39.5731086730957  46.13384559828077 40 57 302015 3
    1  35.33453369140625  46.13384559828077 40 57 302015 4
    1  89.91885910622081 26.482243560432856 22 70 302016 1
    1   52.1906913488704 26.482243560432856 22 70 302016 2
    1  49.85567855834961 26.482243560432856 22 70 302016 3
    1  93.59951782226563 26.482243560432856 22 70 302016 4
    0  34.96221411582996  40.49355608620519 50 37 302023 1
    0                  .  40.49355608620519 50 37 302023 2
    0                  .  40.49355608620519 50 37 302023 3
    0  44.75213623046875  40.49355608620519 50 37 302023 4
    0  58.31698073987165 22.321492704288158 54 35 302026 1
    0                  . 22.321492704288158 54 35 302026 2
    0                  . 22.321492704288158 54 35 302026 3
    0  66.51414489746094 22.321492704288158 54 35 302026 4
    1  60.96224235348996  37.28335203890759 25 58 302035 1
    1   29.8621632215506  37.28335203890759 25 58 302035 2
    1  32.76686096191406  37.28335203890759 25 58 302035 3
    1 60.282371520996094  37.28335203890759 25 58 302035 4
    1  42.15874900642676 39.312358840437454 55 45 302036 1
    1   62.0336049379118 39.312358840437454 55 45 302036 2
    1  39.79743576049805 39.312358840437454 55 45 302036 3
    1  37.10237121582031 39.312358840437454 55 45 302036 4
    1  40.81092850942878  26.22581334108242 23 45 302039 1
    1   60.2726797012324  26.22581334108242 23 45 302039 2
    1  43.35675811767578  26.22581334108242 23 45 302039 3
    1   40.3941650390625  26.22581334108242 23 45 302039 4
    1  57.88388640065131 43.545985572969016 22 36 302040 1
    1   74.0354782014699 43.545985572969016 22 36 302040 2
    1 53.070613861083984 43.545985572969016 22 36 302040 3
    1   53.1945686340332 43.545985572969016 22 36 302040 4
    0  62.02567908400774  22.07612456747405 25 54 302047 1
    0   28.0767906435103  22.07612456747405 25 54 302047 2
    0   61.1196174621582  22.07612456747405 25 54 302047 3
    0  77.34635925292969  22.07612456747405 25 54 302047 4
    1 37.071829154198184  33.48218806662551 36 36 303002 1
    1   70.7923247729106  33.48218806662551 36 36 303002 2
    1   69.3332748413086  33.48218806662551 36 36 303002 3
    1 37.811553955078125  33.48218806662551 36 36 303002 4
    end
    ------------------ copy up to and including the previous line ------------------

    any thoughts about potential explanations about this curiosity are welcome :-)
    thanks
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