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  • Event Studies, Difference-in-Differences, and Synthetic Controls

    I don't have a Stata question as much as I do a conceptual statistics question. I'm writing an event-study synthetic control estimator that's good in situations where more than one unit is treated at different times, or staggered implementation.

    While writing the syntax, I thought a lot about the recent advancements in difference-in-differences, namely the idea of how we might construct the donor pool/comparison group for newly treated units. The conversation in the DD literature seems to boil down to two main ideas: we can use the not-yet-treated units as the donor pool or never treatedunits.

    I can see two appealing arguments for either case: If we use the never-treated units as our comparison group, we arguably are using the cleanest form of donors possible. Since they were never exposed to the intervention, assuming SUTVA and others, we can approximate an unbiased ATT by using the never-treated units since there's no chance of contamination of treatment effects by using already-treated units.

    However, I also see a case for using the not-yet-treated units as donor units, arguably a better one: perhaps the ever-treated units may share latent similarities to each other on unobserved background traits, thereby allowing us to better model the real data generating process of the pre-intervention outcomes based on this fact.

    Does anyone have any thoughts on how we might marry together these ideas in synthetic controls and differedifferences-in-differences?

  • #2
    I am not sure how much my comment will help, but here is a try:


    Callaway and Sant'Anna (2019): Difference in Difference with multiple time periods: use a somewhat similar approach as you are discussing.
    Just a suggestion, why not make this optional to have both never-treated and not-yet-treated groups to act as controls groups in your program upon user's choice.

    The idea is that after controlling for covariates, the treatment and control groups display similar pre-treatment trends. This can be true for both never-treated and not-yet-treated groups. Also, not-yet-treated groups may have a tendency to display an effect on the outcome because of anticipation effects. E.g., if the minimum wage is planned to be increased in a US state in the year 2024, but has not yet increased, it may start affecting whatever outcome variable you have on the left hand side of the equation today rather than in 2024 because people are anticipating this increase.

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    • #3
      A very interesting question, I can point you towards literature I've recently come across as I asked myself pretty much the same question:

      https://academic.oup.com/restud/arti...dFrom=fulltext

      https://www.nber.org/papers/w29691

      https://ideas.repec.org/a/tsj/stataj...2p435-458.html

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      • #4
        Indeed, I used one of Chaisemartin and d'Haultfoeullie's estimator for my masters thesis. The literature on this is plentiful, with lots of recent reviews coming out. The main paper that seems most relevant (one of them) is this one which is pretty hard to find by Google searches, but is actually (I think) free. Rothstein, Ben-Michael and Feller are monstruously good, and the appendix to their paper is also worth reading. I wish I were smart enough to code it in Stata myself.

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