Interpretation of long and short run coefficients in ARDL model

[Nabaneeta Saha]

Hi,

I needed some help understanding how to interpret the short and long run coefficients of ARDL model. For the long run coefficents, I find the coefficient for inflows_adj variable to be statistically significant which is not the case for short run coefficient for inflows_adj. I am not able to understand what that implies. Also, signs of coefficients are different for variables in short run and long run. Can anyone please help me understand how to interpret these results?

[Justin Niakamal]

See slide 16:
http://repec.org/usug2018/uk18_Kripfganz.pdf

Your error-correction term implies that about 24.4% of any movements into disequilibrium are corrected for within one period (which in your example is a quarter).

[Nabaneeta Saha]

Thank you Justin. I understand your point. But my question is slightly different. The signs of coefficients for variables in long and short run are different. Also, a variable signficiant in long run shows insignificance in short run. I am not able to interpret these two results.