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  • "flat log likelihood encountered, cannot find uphill direction" when using GARCH command on index returns

    I am using time series across 7 months focused on index returns on countries. I ran "arch Price Attack, arch(1)garch(1) het(Price Attack)" where 'Attack' is a dummy variable and Price is the price of my chosen index. I use the same index information; the time period over which the dummy variable equals 1 changes. I encounter the ""flat log likelihood encountered, cannot find uphill direction" error or the "could not calculate numerical derivatives discontinuous region with missing values encountered" error. How can I rectify this. If more detail is needed I can provide more information


  • #2
    Mway:
    welcome to this forum.
    The warning message thrown by Stata means that there's some problem with the ML function.
    Inspect your data and see if there's something strange and/or run your model on a shorter time span and see whether the warning message is thrown again.
    Kind regards,
    Carlo
    (StataNow 19.0)

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    • #3
      Thank you Carlo this confirms my thoughts.
      A small follow up: my data is pretty much exactly the same each time I run the computation, the only change is the number of dummy variables that equal 1 (centred around 31mar2012). Why would my data be okay for different lengths of time. I have attached the 4 versions of the data I'm using as I'm not sure if I'm being clear(identical apart from the Attack column).
      Also when I run 'arch Price Attack, arch(1)garch(2) het(Attack)', I get results, what does this mean for me, why wouldn't the (1,1) variation work?
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