Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Interpreting significance - HLM using REML and Kenward-Roger-corr.

    Dear Statalisters,

    I struggle with interpreting my results from multilevel linear regressions, using restricted maximum likelihood and Kenward-Roger correction. I use Stata 15.0 on a Mac (version 10.14), and I hope I’m using the Code-function right.

    My problem is that I do not know how to interpret the significance of the coefficients in my multilevel outputs. I’m doing my master thesis, so I will report significance at both the 0.1-, 0.05-, 0.01- and 0.001-level in my regression tables.

    For example, from reading off P>|t| in the output below, I immediately thought that x1-x3 are statistically significant (x1 at the 0.1-level, x2 at the 0.01-level, x3 at the 0.001-level). However, is that the correct interpretation? The confusion arise as I do not know how to calculate the critical t-value, so that I can compare t from the output to the critical t-value. I tried using this calculatur (http://www.ttable.org/student-t-value-calculator.html), plotting in df=6, but I'm not sure this yields the right value. The critical value for a two-tail test with significance level 0.01 is calculated to be +/-3.71. However, if x2 is significant at the 0.01-level (which I though from reading its P>|t|), why is the t-value only 3.43, which yields a significance at the 0.05-level if the critical t-value is 3.71? Is the critical t-value in fact something else, or is my interpretation of P>|t| wrong?

    Code:
    mixed CHILDREN x1 x2 x3 || COUNTRY2:, reml dfmethod(kroger)
    Code:
    Mixed-effects REML regression                   Number of obs     =      3,245
    Group variable: COUNTRY2                        Number of groups  =         10
    
                                                    Obs per group:
                                                                  min =        108
                                                                  avg =      324.5
                                                                  max =        466
    DF method: Kenward-Roger                        DF:           min =      16.07
                                                                  avg =   1,561.11
                                                                  max =   3,240.03
    
                                                    F(3,    98.23)    =      21.91
    Log restricted-likelihood = -4836.0572          Prob > F          =     0.0000
    
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          CHILDREN |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
    ---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    x1 |   .2339834   .1167206     2.00   0.058    -.0091296    .4770963
    x2 |    .133747   .0389608     3.43   0.001     .0573566    .2101373
    x3 |   .0837528   .0124587     6.72   0.000     .0593243    .1081814
    _cons |   .5332078   .2389675     2.23   0.040     .0268024    1.039613
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
    -----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
    COUNTRY2: Identity           |
                      var(_cons) |   .1383108   .0711551      .0504601    .3791085
    -----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                   var(Residual) |   1.136198   .0282628      1.082133    1.192965
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    LR test vs. linear model: chibar2(01) = 124.99        Prob >= chibar2 = 0.0000
    
    . estat ic
    
    Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
           Model |        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
    -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
               . |      3,245         .  -4836.057       6    9684.114   9720.624
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    All help is very much appreciated.


    Kind regards,

    Frøydis Jensen

  • #2
    -mixed- stores the Kenward-Roger degrees of freedom in an -ereturn- matrix, which you can access after fitting the model. You can also use -test , small- afterward to see an F-statistic that is equivalent to the t-statistic reported in the regression table. The degrees-of-freedom will depend upon whether the predictor is a characteristic of the entity at the second level or the first.

    See the example below. Begin at the Begin Here comment. The code above is just to set up the illustration.

    .ÿ
    .ÿversionÿ15.1

    .ÿ
    .ÿclearÿ*

    .ÿ
    .ÿsetÿseedÿ`=strreverse("1526827")'

    .ÿ
    .ÿquietlyÿsetÿobsÿ10

    .ÿgenerateÿbyteÿcidÿ=ÿ_n

    .ÿgenerateÿdoubleÿcid_uÿ=ÿrnormal()

    .ÿgenerateÿdoubleÿx1ÿ=ÿruniform()ÿ-ÿ0.5

    .ÿ
    .ÿquietlyÿexpandÿ325

    .ÿforvaluesÿiÿ=ÿ2/3ÿ{
    ÿÿ2.ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿgenerateÿdoubleÿx`i'ÿ=ÿruniform()ÿ-ÿ0.5
    ÿÿ3.ÿ}

    .ÿgenerateÿdoubleÿoutÿ=ÿcid_uÿ+ÿrnormal()

    .ÿ
    .ÿmixedÿoutÿc.(x?)ÿ||ÿcid:ÿ,ÿremlÿdfmethod(kroger)ÿnolrtestÿnolog

    Mixed-effectsÿREMLÿregressionÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿNumberÿofÿobsÿÿÿÿÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿ3,250
    Groupÿvariable:ÿcidÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿNumberÿofÿgroupsÿÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ10

    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿObsÿperÿgroup:
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿminÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ325
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿavgÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿ325.0
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿmaxÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ325
    DFÿmethod:ÿKenward-RogerÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿDF:ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿminÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ8.00
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿavgÿ=ÿÿÿ1,623.02
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿmaxÿ=ÿÿÿ3,238.04

    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿF(3,ÿÿÿÿ38.27)ÿÿÿÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ1.27
    Logÿrestricted-likelihoodÿ=ÿ-4663.8437ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿProbÿ>ÿFÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ=ÿÿÿÿÿ0.2969

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿoutÿ|ÿÿÿÿÿÿCoef.ÿÿÿStd.ÿErr.ÿÿÿÿÿÿtÿÿÿÿP>|t|ÿÿÿÿÿ[95%ÿConf.ÿInterval]
    -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿx1ÿ|ÿÿÿ1.731202ÿÿÿ.9737273ÿÿÿÿÿ1.78ÿÿÿ0.113ÿÿÿÿÿ-.514216ÿÿÿÿ3.976621
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿx2ÿ|ÿÿ-.0042881ÿÿÿ.0614673ÿÿÿÿ-0.07ÿÿÿ0.944ÿÿÿÿ-.1248068ÿÿÿÿ.1162307
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿx3ÿ|ÿÿÿ.0548625ÿÿÿ.0618838ÿÿÿÿÿ0.89ÿÿÿ0.375ÿÿÿÿ-.0664728ÿÿÿÿ.1761979
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ_consÿ|ÿÿ-.1776604ÿÿÿ.3068234ÿÿÿÿ-0.58ÿÿÿ0.579ÿÿÿÿÿ-.885196ÿÿÿÿ.5298752
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ÿÿRandom-effectsÿParametersÿÿ|ÿÿÿEstimateÿÿÿStd.ÿErr.ÿÿÿÿÿ[95%ÿConf.ÿInterval]
    -----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
    cid:ÿIdentityÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ|
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿvar(_cons)ÿ|ÿÿÿÿ.935118ÿÿÿ.4691202ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ.34982ÿÿÿÿ2.499702
    -----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿvar(Residual)ÿ|ÿÿÿÿ1.01404ÿÿÿ.0252018ÿÿÿÿÿÿ.9658294ÿÿÿÿ1.064658
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    .ÿ
    .ÿ*
    .ÿ*ÿBeginÿhere
    .ÿ*
    .ÿ//ÿDenominatorÿdegreesÿofÿfreedomÿ(Kenward-Roger)
    .ÿmatrixÿlistÿe(df)

    e(df)[1,6]
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿout:ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿout:ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿout:ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿout:ÿÿlns1_1_1:ÿÿÿlnsig_e:
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿx1ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿx2ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿx3ÿÿÿÿÿÿ_consÿÿÿÿÿÿ_consÿÿÿÿÿÿ_cons
    r1ÿÿ8.0000142ÿÿ3238.0353ÿÿ3238.0383ÿÿ8.0000293ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ.ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ.

    .ÿ
    .ÿ//ÿTestÿstatisticsÿw/degreesÿofÿfreedom
    .ÿtestÿx1,ÿsmall

    ÿ(ÿ1)ÿÿ[out]x1ÿ=ÿ0

    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿF(ÿÿ1,ÿÿ8.00)ÿ=ÿÿÿÿ3.16
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿProbÿ>ÿFÿ=ÿÿÿÿ0.1133

    .ÿtestÿx2,ÿsmall

    ÿ(ÿ1)ÿÿ[out]x2ÿ=ÿ0

    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿF(ÿÿ1,3238.04)ÿ=ÿÿÿÿ0.00
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿProbÿ>ÿFÿ=ÿÿÿÿ0.9444

    .ÿtestÿx3,ÿsmall

    ÿ(ÿ1)ÿÿ[out]x3ÿ=ÿ0

    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿF(ÿÿ1,3238.04)ÿ=ÿÿÿÿ0.79
    ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿProbÿ>ÿFÿ=ÿÿÿÿ0.3754

    .ÿ
    .ÿexit

    endÿofÿdo-file


    .


    Maybe it's still de rigueur at your institution and department, but the trend lately is to get away from all of the levels of significance stuff.

    Also, you might want to update your Stata to Release 15.1; it's free to do so if you're allowed Internet access and administrative privileges on your machine.

    Comment


    • #3
      The Kenward-Roger method is mostly used to adjust DFs in small samples, which doesn't seem to be this case.

      That said, if you really wish to stick with adjusted DF methods, you may want to compare the results with the - sattertwhaite - method as well.
      Best regards,

      Marcos

      Comment


      • #4
        Thank you both very much for helpful comments, Joseph and Marcos. It is much appreciated.

        I read up on some literature on multilevel modeling with small samples before I ran my models, mostly because of my moderately low level-2 sample (10 countries). The recommendation seemed to be combining Restricted Maximum Likelihood with Kenward-Roger correction to account for small-sample bias. However, I do agree with you, Marcos, that my sample is not the «worst» in regard to sample size.

        I have also tested running my models with Maximum Likelihood estimation, and I chose REML because several of the coefficients got at least one significance level lower/better with ML-estimation, implying small-sample bias.

        As mentioned, I’m writing my master thesis (in sociology), and I do not believe I will be penalized for using regular DF methods. My supervisor, who works quantitatively, had not heard of Kenward-Roger correction. This also worries me a bit, since I do to some extent rely on her, considering that this is the first time I’m doing multilevel modeling.

        I have run some further REML-models now, dropping the adjusted DFs, and it really doesn’t do much of a difference––the standard errors get minimally changed, mostly at the third decimal place. Marcos, do I understand correctly that you recommend me to use regular DF methods, but stick with REML?

        Again, thank you so much for your help.


        Kind regards,

        Frøydis
        Last edited by Froeydis Jensen; 29 Nov 2019, 06:04.

        Comment


        • #5
          1. If any of your predictors is a characteristic of your level-two entities (countries), then you should stick with Kenward-Roger or Satterthwaite adjustments. If all three are characteristics of entities at the first (lowest) level, then it won't matter.

          2. In your simple variance components model, Satterthwaite should give identical or near-identical results as Kenward-Roger.

          Comment


          • #6
            If both the "ordinary" and Kenward-Roger adjustment provided similar results, I gather you may use one method and inform that the other provided similiar results.
            Best regards,

            Marcos

            Comment


            • #7
              Thank you again for your help, Joseph and Marcos.


              Kind regards,

              Frøydis

              Comment


              • #8
                Froeydis: Are you open to suggestions about improving your analysis? It looks like children is a count variable? And, personality, I would never use a mixed model with 10 groups and 100s of obs per group. We don’t even know the statistical properties of the estimators. If your key variable varies at level one, you should include country dummies and use Poisson regression with robust standard errors. But maybe I don’t understand your setup.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hi Jeff,

                  Together with my supervisors, I have finally decided to opt for multilevel modeling. However, I do appreciate your insights and I have discussed Poisson regression with my supervisors. Thank you for your advice.

                  Comment

                  Working...
                  X