Probability of an event occurring after another event

[Tomas Jankelevich]

Hello,
I have a panel for banks and i want to calculate the probability or a regression that shows me for a bank that suffers a death on 1929 (death1929=1), what is de probability that the same bank falls into bankruptcy (brokeyear=1) on the same year or the following 2. So in other words, if death1929==1 what is the probability that brokeyear==1 on the following two years.

id year brokeyear death1929
 2 1928 0 0
 2 1929 0 0
 2 1930 0 0
 2 1931 0 0
 2 1932 0 0
 2 1933 0 1
 2 1934 1 0
 2 1935 . .
 3 1928 0 0
 3 1929 0 0
 3 1930 0 0
 3 1931 0 0
 3 1932 1 1
 3 1933 . .
 3 1934 . .
 3 1935 . .
 4 1928 0 1
 4 1929 0 0
 4 1930 1 0

Thanks

[William Lisowski]

Perhaps this will point you in a useful direction.

* Example generated by -dataex-. To install: ssc install dataex
clear
input byte id int year byte(brokeyear death1929)
2 1928 0 0
2 1929 0 0
2 1930 0 0
2 1931 0 0
2 1932 0 0
2 1933 0 1
2 1934 1 0
2 1935 . .
3 1928 0 0
3 1929 0 0
3 1930 0 0
3 1931 0 0
3 1932 1 1
3 1933 . .
3 1934 . .
3 1935 . .
4 1928 0 1
4 1929 0 0
4 1930 1 0
9 1928 0 1
9 1929 0 0
9 1930 0 0
9 1931 0 0
9 1932 1 0
end
bysort id (year): egen year_b = max(year*brokeyear)
generate broke2yr = (year_b-year)<=2 if death1929==1
tab broke2yr

. tab broke2yr

   broke2yr |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |          1       25.00       25.00
          1 |          3       75.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |          4      100.00