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  • Overdispersion VS Underdispersion

    Hi all,

    I am trying to decide the regression model between Poisson and Negative Binomial.
    So far, what I know is that with the presence of overdispersion Negative Binomial is more appropriate than Poisson.
    But, the problem is that the over- or under-dispersion is depending on what type of dependent variable I want to use.

    My raw data is a count-value: the number of car accidents
    But, some researchers normalize the number of car accidents with the number of hours of driving: (# of car accidents/# hours driving)
    And, I do think it make sense. Now, again, some of them use it as a percentage and the other use it as just a ratio.

    As far as I know, we can also use Poisson not only for a count-value but a continuous value as well. So, my problems are:
    1. If I use the dependent variable as a percentage ((# of car accidents/# hours driving)*100), I do have over-dispersion. Should I use Negative Binomial?
    2. If I use the dependent variable as a ratio (# of car accidents/# hours driving), I do have under-dispersion. Should I use Poisson?
    3. If I use "exposure (# hours driving)", does Poisson or Negative Binomial consider the dependent variable as "Count-value" or "Ratio"?

    Could you please share your opinion?

    Thank you so much in advance.
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