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  • arima does not return probability value in e(p)

    I am using arima in STATA 12.1. The display output looks fine, but the arima command always leaves the e(p) scalar empty (null, or "."); yet all other scalars, macros and matrices returned by arima are updated properly. This can be easily demonstrated by "ereturn list" after an arima command. "Prob > chi2" always shows a proper value between 0 and 1 in the display console, despite the e(p) scalar being empty. Has anyone else run into this? Any help appreciated.
    Dave Carley

  • #2
    Here is an example in which I could replicate that behaviour.

    Code:
    webuse wpi1
    arima wpi, arima(1,1,1)
    di e(p)
    We can recover those p-values using tricks discussed in: M.L. Buis (2012) "Stata tip 112: Where did my p-values go? (part 2)", The Stata Journal, 12(4), pp.759-760.

    Code:
    di chi2tail(e(df_m),e(chi2))
    Note that the p-value is very small: 3.519e-68 = 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000003519 (I may be one or two zeros off), which I guess is the reason for this problem.
    ---------------------------------
    Maarten L. Buis
    University of Konstanz
    Department of history and sociology
    box 40
    78457 Konstanz
    Germany
    http://www.maartenbuis.nl
    ---------------------------------

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    • #3
      Thanks Maarten, that took care of it.

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