Hello to all
I'm seeking some helpto check if my interpretation is correct, i'm sorry about the lenght of this post, and for any mistakes in my english i will probably make.
My research is to check if the military expenditure has any impact with the GDP from 1980 to 2013 by using VAR or VEC.
First I checked the stationarity of the varibles, GDP (PIB in Portuguese, in the pictures) and MilitaryExpenditure ( GastoMilitarDefaIPCA2013, in portuese and in the pictures, sorry for the long name), i used Dickey-Fuller for the test, both variables were non-stationary, them i did first difference on both variables and they become stationary, both stationary of first order. Some criterias AK and BIA also suggested that i make first difference in the cointegration test. After that i did the Johansen Test of cointegration, and the result was that GDP(PIB) and MilitaryExpenditure(GastoMilitarDefaIPCA2013) has long run relationship, being cointegrated of Rank (1), with the "Star". Them after running VEC i checked the Error Correction Term, them checking the p-valor it didnt show the casuality in the long run. Now is one of my doubt in the short run, i couldnt find out if there is relationship or not.
Them moving on to check if the model is well specified, i did the Lagrange Multiplier test for autocorrelation and it didnt show autocorrelation, another doubt, at last i did the Jarque-Bera test for error distribution, and my target model, that is MilitaryExpenditure effectiong the GDP, is normaly distributed. Again there is screenshots to see if my interpretation is correct i also didnt know if i did all correctly or if i jumped major steps.
I'm sorry if im asking to much, i'm really lost here on the interpretation. I don't even know if this is the right place.
Thank you in advantage.
WARNING - BIG PICUTRE AHEAD - (https://i.imgur.com/pLtv137.png)
I'm seeking some helpto check if my interpretation is correct, i'm sorry about the lenght of this post, and for any mistakes in my english i will probably make.
My research is to check if the military expenditure has any impact with the GDP from 1980 to 2013 by using VAR or VEC.
First I checked the stationarity of the varibles, GDP (PIB in Portuguese, in the pictures) and MilitaryExpenditure ( GastoMilitarDefaIPCA2013, in portuese and in the pictures, sorry for the long name), i used Dickey-Fuller for the test, both variables were non-stationary, them i did first difference on both variables and they become stationary, both stationary of first order. Some criterias AK and BIA also suggested that i make first difference in the cointegration test. After that i did the Johansen Test of cointegration, and the result was that GDP(PIB) and MilitaryExpenditure(GastoMilitarDefaIPCA2013) has long run relationship, being cointegrated of Rank (1), with the "Star". Them after running VEC i checked the Error Correction Term, them checking the p-valor it didnt show the casuality in the long run. Now is one of my doubt in the short run, i couldnt find out if there is relationship or not.
Them moving on to check if the model is well specified, i did the Lagrange Multiplier test for autocorrelation and it didnt show autocorrelation, another doubt, at last i did the Jarque-Bera test for error distribution, and my target model, that is MilitaryExpenditure effectiong the GDP, is normaly distributed. Again there is screenshots to see if my interpretation is correct i also didnt know if i did all correctly or if i jumped major steps.
I'm sorry if im asking to much, i'm really lost here on the interpretation. I don't even know if this is the right place.
Thank you in advantage.
WARNING - BIG PICUTRE AHEAD - (https://i.imgur.com/pLtv137.png)
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